Economic activity consolidates in May 2022, in sync with global cues: PHD Chamber

Economic activity in May 2021 has witnessed consolidation, which is in sync with the global cues and its impact on inflation, crude oil prices and consumer sentiments, said Mr Pradeep Multani, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry, in a press statement issued here today.

READ:  How MBA institutes help bringing awareness around sustainability

The PHDCCI Economy GPS Index for May 2022 has decreased to 132.4 as compared to 140.6 in April 2022, said Mr Pradeep Multani.

PHDCCI Economy GPS Index captures the momentum in supply side business activity through growth in GST collections, demand side consumer behaviour through volume growth in passenger vehicle sales and sensitivity of policy reforms and impact of domestic and international economic and business environment through the movement of SENSEX at the base year of 2018-19=100, said the Industry Body.

Passenger vehicles growth, which is a significant demand indicator in GPS index, has recorded a sequential growth of 14.4%, increasing from 2,51,581 units in April 2022 to 2,87,746 units in May 2022, said Mr. Pradeep Multani.

The gross GST collections in May 2022 stands at Rs. 1,40,885 crore and has recorded a sequential contraction of (-)15.9% in May 2022, decreasing from Rs. 1,67,540 crore in April 2022 to Rs. 1,40,885 crore in May 2022, said Mr. Pradeep Multani. 

  visit EasyShiksha for skill development  

The sequential growth of SENSEX (average of daily close) has decreased by 6.4% in May 2022 from 58166 points in April 2022 to 54437 points in May 2022, said Mr. Pradeep Multani.

Economic recovery so far (Sequential)

Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI Economy GPS Index.

The PHDCCI Economy GPS Index at 132.4 for May 2022 is higher by 40.9 points from the Economy GPS Index for May 2021 at 91.5, said Mr. Pradeep Multani.

 Economic recovery so far (Y-o-Y)

Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI Economy GPS Index.

PHDCCI Economy GPS Index has shown sharp recovery from the lows of 39.6 for April 2020 to 123.7 for April 2021, 91.5 for May 2021 as compared with 50.1 for May 2020, 107.5 for June 2021 as compared with 75.1 for June 2020, 119.7 for July 2021 as compared with 85.6 for July 2020, 116.7 for August 2021 as compared with 90.5 for August 2020, 113.1 for September 2021 as compared with 100.2 for September 2020, 127.0 for October 2021 as compared with 109.6 for October 2020, 125.2 for November 2021 as compared with 106.9 for November 2020, 123.5 for December 2021 as compared with 111.9 for December 2020, 133.2 for January 2022 as compared with 118.5 for January 2021, 129.8 for February 2022 as compared with 118.8 for February 2021, 133.6 for March 2022 as compared with 123.0 for March 2021, 140.6 for April 2022 as compared with 123.7 for April 2021 and 132.4 for May 2022 as compared with 91.5 for May 2021.

Chart 1: GPS Index: Monthly Trend

Chart 2: Movement of GDP and GPS over the quarters

Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI Economy GPS Index.

Although, the pace of economic activity is expected to remain strong on the back of various structural reforms undertaken by the Government during the last 2 years, a continued handholding by the Government is required to mitigate the impact of recent geo-political developments while maintaining a balance between inflation and economic growth, said Mr. Pradeep Multani.

PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PHDCCI) Economy GPS Index is a composite index of 3 lead economic and business indicators with base year at 2018-19=100, which measures the broad economic and business activity. The PHDCCI Economy GPS Index, based on the monthly values of three high frequency indicators viz., GST collection (Rs. Crore), Passenger Vehicle Sales (units) and SENSEX (daily average), helps to find the direction of the economy. The three broad indicators represent not only demand and supply in the economy but also revenue growth of the government and movement of financial markets in the country. GST collections indicate the momentum of business activity, passenger vehicle sales is a broad indicator of demand activity in the economy and movement of SENSEX indicates the mood of both domestic and foreign investors.

Movement of Economy GPS over the Months

Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI GPS Index