Indian economy continues with buoyant activity: PHD Chamber
On the back of calibrated and measured decisions taken by the Government and RBI to control inflation in the recent months, the economic activity in India continues its buoyancy, despite the hovering external headwinds, said Mr Pradeep Multani, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
Out of the 10 lead economic and business indicators of QET (Quick Economic Trends), tracked by the industry body PHDCCI, 7 have shown an increase for the month of August 2022 as compared with 8 out of 10 indicators showing the uptrend in July 2022, said Mr Pradeep Multani.
GST Collections, E-way Bill, Railway Freight, Passenger Vehicle Sales, Exports, exchange rate and stock market have registered improvement in August 2022, said Mr Pradeep Multani.
GST collections registered y-o-y growth of around 28% in August 2022, increasing from Rs 1,12,020 crore in August 2021 to Rs 1,43,612 crore in August 2022. E-way Bills have shown y-o-y growth of around 18.9%, in August 2022, increasing from 65.8 million in August 2021 to 78.21 million in August 2022. Exports registered a positive growth of more than 1.6% in August 2022, increasing from US$ 33.4 billion in August 2021 to US$ 33.9 billion in August 2022.
Railway freight registered y-o-y growth of around 8%, increasing from 110.5 Million Tonnes in August 2021 to 119.3 Million Tonnes in August 2022. Passenger vehicle sales registered a y-o-y increase of 21%, increasing from 2,32,224 units in August 2021 to 2,81,210 units in August 2022.
The SENSEX (monthly average) registered a sequential increase of around 8% in August 2022 from 54685 in July 2022 to 58990 in August 2022. Exchange rate appreciated by 0.04% from an average of 79.55 INR/USD in July 2022 to 79.51 INR/USD in August 2022.
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On the other hand, the forex reserves registered a negative sequential growth of (-)2.2% in August 2022, decreasing from US$ 573.8 billion in July 2022 to US$ 561 billion in August 2022. CPI inflation increased to 7% in August 2022 against 6.7% in July 2022. Employment scenario decelerated as the unemployment rate increased to 8.3% in August 2022 from 6.8% in July 2022.
| Chart 1: Economy out of 10 based on PHDCCI Quick Economic Trends | Chart 2: Economic and Business indicators’ growth rates: August 2022 (in %) |
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI
Note: *Growth calculations of indicators such as exchange rate, unemployment and CPI Inflation are adjusted such that the decrease in the said indicators depicts improvement and vice-versa; figures are rounded off; growth for GST Collections, E way bill, Railway Freight, Passenger Vehicle Sales and Exports is calculated on year on year (y-o-y) basis; growth for Unemployment Rate, Forex Reserves, Exchange Rate, Stock Market is calculated on sequential basis.
10 economic and business indicators of QET include demand and supply indicators along with external and financial sectors indicators, said Mr Pradeep Multani.
PHDCCI Quick Economic Trends: Growth Performance of Economic & Business activity so far
| S. No. | Economic and Business Indicators | Jun-22 | Growth | Jul-22 | Growth | Aug-22 | Growth | ||||
| Indicators with Y-o-Y Growth | |||||||||||
| 1 | GST Collection (in Rs crore) | 144616 | 55.8% | ↑ | 148995 | 28.0% | ↑ | 143612 | 28.2% | ↑ | |
| 2 | E way bill (in Millions) | 74.5 | 36.2% | ↑ | 75.57 | 17.8% | ↑ | 78.21 | 18.9% | ↑ | |
| 3 | Railway Freight (MT) | 125.5 | 11.6% | ↑ | 122.1 | 8.3% | ↑ | 119.3 | 7.9% | ↑ | |
| 4 | Passenger Vehicle Sales (units) | 275788 | 19.1% | ↑ | 293865 | 10.0% | ↑ | 281210 | 21.1% | ↑ | |
| 5 | Exports (US$ Billion) | 40.1 | 23.5% | ↑ | 36.3 | 2.1% | ↑ | 33.92 | 1.6% | ↑ | |
| Indicators with Sequential growth (M-o-M) | |||||||||||
| 6 | Unemployment Rate (in %) (Sign Changed)* | 7.8 | -9.6% | ↓ | 6.8 | 12.8% | ↑ | 8.3 | -22.1% | ↓ | |
| 7 | Forex Reserves (in US$ Billion) | 593.3 | -1.3% | ↓ | 573.8 | -3.3% | ↓ | 561.0 | -2.2% | ↓ | |
| 8 | Exchange Rate (INR/USD) (Sign changed)* | 78.03 | -1.0% | ↓ | 79.55 | -2.0% | ↓ | 79.51 | 0.04% | ↑ | |
| 9 | Stock Market (SENSEX monthly average) | 53478 | -1.8% | ↓ | 54685 | 2.3% | ↑ | 58990 | 7.9% | ↑ | |
| 10 | CPI Inflation (in %)* | 7.01 | ↑ | 6.71 | ↑ | 7 | ↑ | ||||
| Overall Score | 6/10 | 8/10 | 7/10 |
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI; Note: *Growth calculations of indicators such as exchange rate, unemployment and CPI Inflation are adjusted such that the decrease in the said indicators depicts improvement and vice-versa; figures are rounded off; growth for GST Collections, E way bill, Railway Freight, Passenger Vehicle Sales and Exports is calculated on year on year (y-o-y) basis; growth for Unemployment Rate, Forex Reserves, Exchange Rate, Stock Market is calculated on sequential basis.
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